Russia-Ukraine War: What is Europe’s New 'Coalition of the Willing' Plan?

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has unveiled plans for a "coalition of the willing" to draft a peace plan aimed at ending the ongoing war in Ukraine. This initiative comes shortly after a public clash between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, signaling a potential shift in Washington's support for Kyiv.

At a security summit in London on Sunday, Starmer welcomed Zelenskyy with a hug, offering reassurances of continued European backing for Ukraine. The meeting was an urgent gathering, called together by Starmer, as European leaders stood firm in their commitment to Ukraine, offering both diplomatic and military support.

Tensions Between Trump and Zelenskyy

The tension between Trump and Zelenskyy was on full display last Friday when a live broadcast of a meeting between the two leaders turned sour. Trump repeatedly interrupted Zelenskyy, accusing him of “gambling with World War III.” The confrontation marked a high point in a growing rift between the US and Ukraine, with Zelenskyy cutting his visit to the US short before heading to Europe.

The Coalition’s Goals and Starmer’s Vision

In the aftermath of the summit, Starmer outlined the key points of the proposed coalition. He emphasized that it was time to move beyond rhetoric and take action to unite around a sustainable and just peace plan for Ukraine. The coalition’s objectives include:

1. Upholding Ukraine’s Sovereignty: The coalition will work to ensure that Ukraine remains at the negotiating table as peace efforts unfold, with a focus on maintaining its territorial integrity.
2. Continued Military Aid: Despite the push for peace, European leaders reaffirmed their commitment to continue providing military assistance to Ukraine.
3. Defensive Capabilities: In the event of a peace deal, Ukraine’s defense capabilities will be bolstered to deter any future invasions.
4. Economic Support: Starmer also announced a £1.6 billion ($2 billion) deal with Ukraine, which will fund the purchase of 5,000 air defense missiles.

What is a “Coalition of the Willing”?

A "coalition of the willing" is a term used to describe an international partnership formed for a specific cause or military objective, where countries voluntarily join forces. Unlike formal organizations like NATO or the European Union, coalitions of the willing are more flexible, with countries choosing to participate based on shared interests rather than binding commitments.

In this case, the coalition would work on developing a peace plan for Ukraine that aligns with the interests of both Ukraine and the US, despite the tensions between Trump and Zelenskyy. While the exact details of the peace plan remain unclear, European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have suggested a potential ceasefire, pausing certain types of attacks and offering peacekeeping forces.

Who’s Involved in the Coalition?

While Starmer confirmed that the UK and France would be core members of the coalition, the security summit in London saw leaders from 12 European nations come together, including Zelenskyy, Macron, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and others. Key figures from the European Commission and NATO were also in attendance, underscoring the importance of the initiative.

Notably, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and outgoing Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also participated, highlighting the international nature of the summit.

The EU’s Role and the US Factor

Timothy Ash, an expert at Chatham House, noted that the UK is well-positioned to take the lead in this peace process due to its unique position outside the EU but still closely aligned with European powers. He also pointed out that Europe’s previous efforts in peace talks had been hindered by Hungary’s resistance to unconditional support for Ukraine.

Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban recently suggested that the EU should engage directly with Russia to discuss a ceasefire and long-term peace, a proposal that reflects the divided stance within Europe on how to handle the crisis.

While Starmer’s push for a European-led peace effort is seen as a positive step, the question remains whether such a coalition can succeed without strong US involvement. Both Starmer and Zelenskyy have acknowledged that the backing of the United States will be crucial for any peace plan to be effective. As Zelenskyy stated, “For peace to succeed, it must have strong US backing,” a sentiment echoed by Starmer in his closing remarks at the summit.

A Historical Context for Coalitions of the Willing

This is not the first time that a coalition of the willing has been formed. One of the earliest examples was the International Force in East Timor (INTERFET), which was led by Australia in 1999 under a UN mandate. In 2003, a similar coalition supported the US-led invasion of Iraq, despite the lack of UN approval. These coalitions highlight the flexibility and potential for impact, though they often depend on the willingness of member states to take risks and engage in military or diplomatic efforts.

Can This Coalition Work Without the US?

While the coalition’s formation is seen as a positive step for Ukraine, its success ultimately hinges on the involvement of the United States. Both Zelenskyy and Starmer have emphasized that a lasting peace effort requires not just European leadership but also strong US support. Without it, the coalition’s efforts may struggle to produce meaningful, sustainable peace.

As the situation in Ukraine continues to evolve, all eyes will be on whether this "coalition of the willing" can bridge the divide between Europe, the US, and Ukraine, and whether it can help bring about a just and enduring peace.